Cryptocurrencies

Despite the unfavorable odds from many cryptocurrency analysts and the community

Despite the unfavorable odds from many cryptocurrency analysts and the broader crypto community regarding the approval of US exchange-traded funds (ETFs) (SEC), some analysts point out that “there is room for surprise.”

“If by chance the SEC decides to approve, many people will be caught in the red,” cryptocurrency trader Matthew Hyland told his 142,000 X followers in a May 17 post.

“If 90% of people think the ETH ETF will be rejected, and the majority of those people think it will lead to a crypto collapse, who will actually sell?” He added, before declaring that the expectation of denial was “heated.” At press time, Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $3,102, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Ethereum is currently trading at $3,102, up 6.31% over the past seven days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has put its approval odds at 35%, while the broader cryptocurrency community has placed its estimates near the 7% mark, according to New York-based cryptocurrency forecasting platform Polymarket.

Meanwhile, David Hahn, institutional research analyst at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, believes “there is room for surprise to the upside on this decision.”

“We believe the odds of approval are closer to 30-40%,” Hahn said in Coinbase’s monthly forecast report published on May 15.

Related: The filing notes that the SEC is exploring reasons to reject Ethereum ETFs

Hahn explained that as cryptocurrency becomes a more prominent issue for voters in the run-up to the upcoming US presidential election in November, the SEC is unlikely to maintain its position on the disapproval resolution.

“As cryptocurrencies begin to emerge as an election issue, it is also uncertain in our view that the SEC will be willing to expend the political capital necessary to support a rejection,” he said.

Hahn also argued that even if VanEck and ARK Invest ETF applications are denied by the initial May 23 deadline, there is a strong possibility that litigation could overturn that decision.

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